The world in 2013 and the threat of a new world war


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1. THE WORLD IN 2013 AND THE THREAT OF A NEW WORLD WARFernando Alcoforado *In his book, 7 Deadly Scenarios-A Military Futurist Explores War in the Twenty-FirstCentury,…
  • 1. THE WORLD IN 2013 AND THE THREAT OF A NEW WORLD WARFernando Alcoforado *In his book, 7 Deadly Scenarios-A Military Futurist Explores War in the Twenty-FirstCentury, published by Bantam Books Trade Paperback Edition, New York, 2009,Andrew Krepinevich, President of the Center for Strategic Budgetary Assessmentsaddresses in Chapter 4 one of the 7 deadly scenarios, Armageddon: The Assault onIsrael. The word Armageddon means the final battle. In the last book of the Bible onRevelation, the name Armageddon is mentioned as the site of a war that will pave theway to a time of peace and justice that only destroy iniquity (grave injustice, crime, sin),but lately the name Armageddon has been associated with a more global catastrophe ora world war.Depending on the attitude of Israel and its opponents in the Middle East in the searchfor peace in the region, it can be assumed the first definition of Armageddon where theplace of war (Israel, Palestine and Iran) will pave the way for a peacetime and justice.The initiative for peace building should from the government of Israel that can onlyhappen if the Jewish people constitute a government that seeks reconciliation with thePalestinian, Iranian and Arabs in general. If the attitude of Israel and its opponents inthe region for a confrontation, it will be a good chance that Armageddon is associatedwith 4th World War. If peace is not concluded, the conflict Israel-Palestine and Israel-Iran tend to produce a regional war involving all countries of the region and also aworldwide conflict with the involvement of the great military powers of the world(United States , an ally of Israel and some Arab countries, and Russia and China, alliesof the Palestinians, Iranians and other Arab countries) in defense of their interests andtheir allies in the region.To make peace with the Palestinians, Israel should: 1) address the issue of Palestinianrefugees (3 million and 600 thousand) applying Resolution 194, adopted by the UNGeneral Assembly on December 11, 1948 which recognizes the right of refugees returnto their homes or be compensated, if they prefer, 2) return East Jerusalem to thePalestinians Israeli-occupied in 1967 that Resolution 242 of the UN Security Councilorders, 3) leaving more than two hundred settlements of more 200 thousand Israelisettlers in the West Bank that Israel created seizing all water resources and most of theWest Bank land, 4) return to the Palestinians about 22% of Palestine that Israeloccupied them in 1967 to create the state of Palestine, alongside the State of Israel basedon the Oslo accords, signed in September 1993 between Israel and the Organization forthe Liberation of Palestine (PLO), and 5) collaborate economically and financially withthe Palestinians in building the future state of Palestine.Therefore depends on the initiative of Israel building peace between Israelis andPalestinians. There is no doubt that there are political sectors of both sides against thecelebration of peace supporters who are of a military solution to the conflict betweenIsraelis and Palestinians whose goal would be to win the war by annihilating the enemy.However, Israel cannot annihilate the Palestinians, nor vice versa. Neither Israeli rightnor extremist groups Palestinians will be able to impose its will by force of arms inPalestine. Faced with the impossibility of a military solution, the extremist of both sidesshould make concessions to them that leads to peace between Palestinians and Jewsavoiding therefore the worse for both people and for humanity considering thepossibility of this conflict constitute the epicenter of the 4th World War. The political 1
  • 2. forces reactive to peace in Palestine are the sectors right wing warmongers who runIsrael, Hamas among Palestinians, Hezbollah that operates in Lebanon and Iran.It should be stressed that Hamas is a Sunni Islamic fundamentalist Palestinianorganization that controls since June 2007 in the Gaza Strip after the expulsion of Fatah,moderate Palestinian party that represents the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.Recently, the political leader and founder of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, gave a speechthat reflected principles of Hamas vowing to build a Palestinian Islamic state in all theland of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza Strip still claiming that the Jewish state wouldbe erased through "resistance," or military action. (See the article by Steven Erlangerunder the title of Hamas Leader Celebrates Founding With Defiant Speech, publishedon the website <>.Hezbollah, in turn, is an organization with political action and paramilitaryfundamentalist Shiite Islamic headquartered in Lebanon that emerged initially as amilitia in response to the invasion of Lebanon by Israel in 1982. Their leaders wereinspired by the ideas of Ayatollah Khomeini and his forces were trained and organizedby the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.Iran has severed all diplomatic and trade ties with Israel from the Islamic Revolution ledby Ayatollah Khomeini that overthrew the Shah Reza Pahlevi. Due to mutualaccusations between Iran and Israel regarding the Iranian nuclear program, thePalestinian territories occupied by Israel and Iranian support for Hamas and Hezbollah,tensions have risen between the two countries. Iran promotes development of nuclearweapons for the purpose of positioning itself as a regional power and exterminates thestate of Israel which, in turn, outlines plans to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. In hisbook, 7 Deadly Scenarios, Andrew Krepinevich argues that with the end of the ColdWar (3th World War) Arab groups Islamic extremists like Hamas in Palestine andHezbollah in Lebanon began to challenge Israel through a sustained campaign ofterrorism and guerrilla warfare with the use of sophisticated weapons and rockets withthe growing support of Irans Islamic leaders.Add to all this the civil war in Syria that points to the inevitable U.S. militaryintervention as reported by the newspaper El País published on website<>. It should be stressed that Syria bordersIsrael and it is an ally of Iran, along with who sponsors Hezbollah and Hamas asopposed to the State of Israel. Besides conflicts between Palestine and Israel, Iran andIsrael, today there is a conflict between the Sunni countries, led by Saudi Arabia againstIran and its allies and between Syria, which sided with Iraq that is Shia majority and theIran which is totally Shiite against the Sunni Saudis and all the monarchies of thePersian Gulf. The attempt of the American military intervention in Syria would alsomean the direct involvement of Russia that has a military alliance with Syria. The civilwar in Syria would also be another factor in leverage Middle East conflict and a newworld war.* Alcoforado, Fernando, engineer and doctor of Territorial Planning and Regional Development from theUniversity of Barcelona, a university professor and consultant in strategic planning, business planning,regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, SãoPaulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo,1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes dodesenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, 2
  • 3. São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na EraContemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and SocialDevelopment-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG,Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora,Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global(Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011) and Os Fatores Condicionantes doDesenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), among others. 3
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