Uk Aerospace International Strategy 2012 Final

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1. UK Aerospace InternationalStrategy 2012 2. Contents Executive Summary 2 Rotary Wing Programmes 18In association with Introduction 3 Civil 19 Objectives 3…
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  • 1. UK Aerospace InternationalStrategy 2012
  • 2. Contents Executive Summary 2 Rotary Wing Programmes 18In association with Introduction 3 Civil 19 Objectives 3 AgustaWestland AW169 (D) 19 Methodology 4 Military 20 US Armed Aerial Scout Helicopter – AAS (C) 20 Opportunities 5 Medium 20 Civil Programmes 8 AgustaWestland AW149 (D) 20 Fixed Wing Widebody/Twin Aisle 8 KAH (C) 20 Airbus A350 - 1000 XWB (D) 8 MH-60G Recap (C) 21 Rolls-Royce Trent XWB (D) 8 Heavy 21 Boeing 787- 9/10 (M/C) 8 VXX (C) 21 Boeing 777X (C) 8 CH-53K (D) 21 Indian Helicopter Programmes (D) 22 Fixed Wing Narrowbody/Single Aisle 9 Boeing 737 MAX (D) 9 Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) 22 A320neo 9 Military market (C) 23 Bombardier CSeries (M) 10 General Recommendations During the COMAC C919 (D) 10 Period January 2012 – March 2013 25 Irkut MS21 (D) 10 Recommended UKTI/ADS Action by Country During the Period January 2012 – March 2013 25 Fixed Wing Regional Jets 11 Asia Pacific 25 Embraer 190X (C) 11 Brazil 25 Fixed Wing Regional Turboprops 11 Canada 25 New ATR (C) 11 China 25 MA 700 (D) 11 Europe 26 Business Jets 12 India 26 Defence Programmes 13 Japan 26 Fixed Wing Fighters 13 South Korea 27 Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II (O, M) 13 Middle East 27 The Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (C) 14 Russia 27 USA 27 Authors Trainers 15 Conclusions 28 Clive Lewis Achieving the Difference LLP US T-X Trainer (C) 15 David Scotter ADS Fixed Wing Multirole/Transport 16 Jim Gilhooly AgustaWestland John Bulmer BAE Systems USAF KC-46A Tanker (D) 16 Tom Dillon Bombardier Embraer KC390 (D) 16 Mike Lee Doncasters Multi-Role Transport Aircraft (MTA) (IL-214T) 17 Jon White GE Aviation Mike McCann GKN Aerospace Martin Phillips Goodrich Andrew Mair Midlands Aerospace Alliance Jamie Martin Ultra Electronics
  • 3. 2 UK Aerospace International Strategy 2012 UK Aerospace International Strategy 2012 3Executive Summary Introduction1. his report identifies the major opportunities for UK T 4. uccessive UK Governments have recognised the S This report is an update of the strategy document that was The consolidated data analysed to produce this report will be Aerospace in international markets and provides importance of aerospace as a strategic sector and have produced in February 2011 by the ADS Aerospace Export made widely available to UK industry on a request basis, along recommendations on how these opportunities should be been supportive in helping it to develop and grow its Focus Group, which outlined the status of the worldwide with a copy of this report summarising the key opportunities. approached during the next 12-18 months. international civil and defence aerospace business. marketplace, identified key export markets for the UK ADS proposes to promote the availability of this report via its Advanced manufacturing sectors such as aerospace aerospace sector and recommended how opportunities own website, its regional partners and the UKTI website. It is ver the next 10 years, the large high growth markets O and defence also continue to be seen as important to in these markets should be approached. This document also proposed that a series of road shows will be organised in such as China, India and Brazil will drive global civil maintaining a balanced economy in the UK. was submitted to UKTI in support of their annual business Regional locations to present both the consolidated data and aerospace growth, although existing/traditional planning process. the recommended activity to UK industry and to allow them to aerospace markets will remain important for UK 5. his document is a direct result of UKTI requiring a T ask questions about the content. industry. As well as supplying to major OEMs, such consolidated UK aerospace industry view of where it can As a result a targeted programme of activities focusing as Airbus and Boeing, the emerging markets are best allocate its resources. ADS and the UK Aerospace on key aerospace opportunities has been delivered for UK It is also intended that the UKTI Advanced Engineering also developing their own indigenous civil aerospace Industry welcome the support that UKTI and BIS have companies based around the recommendations. During the Team should circulate this report to their virtual network programmes, UK companies, particularly at OEM and given to producing this document and look forward past 12 months, this has resulted in greater engagement around the world to inform the aerospace leads in Tier 1 level, with the assistance of UKTI and ADS, need to to continued collaboration between all parties for the from UK industry than previously seen, which has included each market where UK industry believes the greatest enter discussions on these programmes at the earliest benefit of the UK Aerospace Industry. inward and outward activity involving China, India, Russia opportunities are and how they can target their activity to possible stage to enable them to secure work.This will and USA markets and a series of well supported market and assist UK Industry pursue these opportunities. then facilitate opportunities for other UK companies 6. he information contained in this report was compiled T programme briefings in the UK. All of these activities have lower down in the supply chain. from data provided by major UK-based companies in received positive feedback and significantly increased UK Objectives the aerospace sector during late 2011. It provides a companies’ knowledge and interest in pursuing business in The primary objectives of this report are:2. he principal opportunities in the next 10-year period T consolidated view of future international opportunities these markets. are likely to be on new Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, and was signed off as such by ADS Aerospace Export - o provide an evidence base to inform UKTI Advanced T COMAC and Embraer programmes due to their sheer Focus Group in January 2012. The data gathering and consolidation exercise also resulted Engineering 2012/13 activity planning. volume and the fact that there will be options for new in a comprehensive set of worldwide programme forecast supplier entries. There are also significant opportunities 7. he 2012 report was formally launched at the UKTI T data that has been made available to the UK Aerospace - o provide the UK Aerospace Industry in all areas of the T for UK suppliers to win international business on new International Aerospace Exchange event on 7 February Industry via the ADS website and through regional trade supply chain and across all tiers a rich and validated rotorcraft and business aircraft. 2012. At this event major civil aerospace OEMs, and their associations. This has been particularly valuable for SME evidence base on which to base future business capture Tier 1 partners, gave presentations on their major civil companies that do not have their own in-house research activities and planning.3. he globalisation of the supply chain and current T aerospace programmes, including data generated for the teams to gather and produce this analysis. They have market conditions require that UK aerospace companies current report, and how the UK supply chain can access been able to use this data to identify which programmes and UK Government co-operate even more closely these opportunities offer greatest potential for their products/services and than before to maintain and expand their share of thus prioritise their marketing and business development this important part of the advanced engineering activities. Larger companies have also been able to use sector. ADS will continue to work collaboratively with this date to calibrate their own in-house market analysis UK Trade & Investment (UKTI) and the Department and forecasts and to identify where there are differences, for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) Aerospace investigate these areas and refocus their strategy if required. Marine & Defence Unit, which has lead responsibility to ensure that the UK has the right strategies and frameworks to increase the competitiveness of the UK civil aerospace sector and maintain its comparative advantage, and to promote and safeguard the UK’s long- term growth in civil aerospace e.g. through promoting internationally competitive skills, supporting innovation & technological development, and supporting more effective supply chains.
  • 4. 4 UK Aerospace International Strategy 2012 UK Aerospace International Strategy 2012 5Methodology OpportunitiesADS contracted a consultant to gather market intelligence The workshop covered the following issues and was broken The workshop identified a list of priority programmes that it is believed will present the greatest opportunities for UK industry and forecast data for key aerospace programmes from down into 3 phases: during the period 2012-2020. Each of these programmes was evaluated by benefit to UK companies of securing work on these ADS member companies and consolidate these data to programmes versus ease of access. The criteria used for each of these categories were as follows:produce an industry view on global opportunities. In a - Presentation and Evaluation of Consolidated dataworkshop facilitated by the consultant the members of the - Identification of Priority Programmes, Stage of ADS Aerospace Export Focus Group analysed the summary Development and level of opportunities that remain for Ease of Access Benefitdata, generated a list of priority opportunities for the UK the UK supply chain Level of Investment required Volume of Productionaerospace industry, and a list of recommended actions by - Identification of Priority Markets/Countries Cost to win Continuity of ProgrammeADS and UKTI in support of winning business in these areas. Cultural skills Scope (range of opps) The consolidated data was presented by sector and the total market volume by sector and market value by sector Openness of supply chain – lack of incumbents Stability of programme from the data that was submitted are summarised in the Export/import barriers/costs New customer access charts below: Offsets MarginsMarket Volume Dual use No IP transfer Level of competition Timescales arket Volume Win probability Product liability IP protection Access to finance Currency National support In addition, in order to identify the opportunities Manufacture (M) – a programme that is already in that remain for the UK aerospace supply chain, each production and limited opportunities are likely to remain programme was analysed by stage of development, which for UK companies to re-compete for existing business e.g. was classified into four categories identifying where dual sourcing. opportunities exist in general: Operations and Maintenance (O) – a programme that has already entered into service but may still present Concept (C) - a programme that is still at concept stage and opportunities for UK companies providing logistics and therefore presents opportunities for companies of all sizes operational support. and levels of the supply chain. Design and Development (D) – a programme that is already in design and development and where the major systems and structures have already been selected and opportunities remain for sub-system, component and material suppliers.
  • 5. 6 UK Aerospace International Strategy 2012 UK Aerospace International Strategy 2012 7This resulted in a mapping of priority programmes as shown in the image below: A similar mapping was also produced by market which resulted in two sets of markets – those that have a shorter time to sale and are therefore primarily supportable by a trade association and those that have a longer time to sale and where Priority programmes UKTI support can add the most value to companies business development efforts as shown in the image below: *not launchedIt is important to note that during the workshop a number A number of programmes that were not considered far Although North America is a transparent market, it is a of programmes that were included in the previous year’s enough advanced in 2011 to represent opportunities for UK demanding one from UK SME’s to address and this market strategy were taken out as they were considered to no industry when the 2011 report was prepared have also been has therefore been moved to the longer time scale set of longer present significant enough opportunities for the UK added to the 2012 Report which include: priority markets, as it is felt that UKTI support is essential.supply chain to remain a priority. The main reasons for this decision were that supply chains for these projects were Sikorsky S-97already fully committed or that the programme was highly Bell Magellan unlikely to proceed in the timescales that the report covers. Korean KFXThe programmes that were removed from this year’s priority Gulfstream P-42programme list include: Falcon SMS GE Passport engineMitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ)Civil UAS
  • 6. 8 UK Aerospace International Strategy 2012 UK Aerospace International Strategy 2012 9Civil ProgrammesFixed Wing Widebody/Twin Aisle Rolls-Royce Trent XWB (D) Fixed Wing Narrowbody/Single Aisle In December 2009, CFM was selected as the sole engine In all cases engines applicable to relevant airframes follow The Trent XWB has been developed and optimised After enjoying a duopoly position in single aisle narrowbody (LEAP-1C) for the C919 programme by the Chinese company directly after the airframe summary: exclusively for the Airbus A350 XWB family and will be aircraft, Airbus and Boeing face competition from new COMAC. Entry into service for the 919 is targeted for 2016. the sixth member of the highly successful Trent family. entrants that promise fuel savings using new generation Following this, in Nov 2010, Airbus selected the LEAP-1A Airbus A350 - 1000 XWB (D) The XWB Engine range consists of 3 engines with differing engines. Both have reacted with re-engined versions of their as one of two alternative engines that will power the new The Airbus A350-900XWB design is firmed up. Final thrust ranges from 75klb to 93klb. The Trent XWB will use narrowbody offerings. A320neo (New Engine Option). The third platform for the assembly of the first aircraft has slipped from 2011 the successful three-shaft architecture of Rolls-Royce LEAP-1B is on the new 737 MAX.into 2012 with first flight now scheduled for mid-2013. engines and the detailed design will reflect 70 million hours The aircraft is proving to be an attractive commercial of Trent family service experience. The engine is a real “leap” in technology. The Leap-X will proposition with Airbus claiming 567 orders at time of have a bypass ratio of around 10, compared with 5-6 for writing. Entry into Service (EIS) of the A350-900XWB is The A350 has currently attracted 567 firm aircraft orders the CFM56 family, and a core pressure ratio double that of scheduled for 2014 followed by the smaller A350-800XWB from 36 customers, an order book that already exceeds the current engine, at 22. The power plant will also feature in 2015. Following a decision by Airbus to use a higher 1,100 engines before it has entered into service, a record for a two-stage high-pressure turbine driving a 10-stage HP thrust Rolls-Royce Trent XWB engine for the A350-1000XWB any Rolls-Royce engine. compressor, and the low-pressure turbine blades will be and increase the variant’s payload-range capability, its produced using ceramic matrix composite. GE is in charge entry into service is now scheduled for 2017. It will compete In June, at the Paris Air Show, Airbus announced that the of the HP core, combustion chamber and the HP turbine, for business with the larger variants of Boeing’s 787 and the revamped A350-1000 would feature a more powerful thrust whilst Snecma is responsible for the low pressure turbine Boeing 777. The aircraft has so far only been offered with range up to 97klb. and compressor. Nexcelle will provide an integrated light versions of the Rolls Royce Trent XWB engine. weight nacelle system. Boeing 787- 9/10 (M/C)Although Tier1 suppliers are now selected, some The Boeing 787 has had some well publicised schedule The total firm LEAP-X order book stands at over 1500 opportunities still exist in the near term at lower tiers on problems. The first flight took place on 15 December 2009 engines. This includes the latest order by Southwest Airlines A350-1000XWB and the first 787-8 revenue flight was made by ANA in October for 150 737 MAX aircraft. The MAX order book stands at 948 2011 after 40 months of delay. Net orders for the programme aircraft from 13 customers, but the LEAP-1B engine is not declined in 2010 and 2011 due to cancellations. Nevertheless, yet reflected in the total MAX orders tally. the programme looks set to be successful with a backlog in excess of 800. The aircraft is offered with both the Rolls Royce Boeing 737 MAX (D) A320neo Trent 1000 and General Electric GEnx 2B engines. Boeing has launched the 737 MAX re-engined aircraft Airbus has reacted to new competition with the A320 with major orders from American Airlines and Southwest New Engine Option (NEO). The ‘option’ includes the CFM To recover as much programme slippage as possible Airlines. First deliveries are scheduled to take place in 2017. International Leap-X or Pratt & Whitney PW1100G engine Boeing has been pulling work back in-house. It is possible Boeing claims more than 900 orders from 13 customers. and improved aerodynamic performance. The aircraft is Boeing will look to replace underperforming contractors due to enter service in 2016 and has proven popular with and re-outsource work. This may be an opportunity Boeing intends to minimise changes from the 737NG but operators. . In the first year after the programme launch in that established and trusted UK suppliers could exploit. will develop widespread structural strengthening and a December 2010, Airbus claims to have received 1,420 orders Nonetheless it is obvious that Boeing will be risk averse with longer nose gear to accommodate the larger diameter and commitments. As a derivative of the existing A320, regards to its supply chain for many years to come. fan of the LEAP-1B engine. Opportunities at first tier exist the A320neo is likely to offer less scope for new contracts, now in the areas of airframe, nose gear and engine related with exception of the engines and related equipment, than The base model is 787-8 which is to be followed by the equipment. an all new-aircraft. Opportunities exist at Tier 1 and lower slightly larger 787-9. Suppliers are producing components and new engines will present new opportunities in related for the first 787-9 now. A further stretch to 787-10 is CFM LEAP-1B (D) systems and aero structures. planned but would not deliver the range/payload capability Airlines have been pushing engine manufacturers for less to make it a 777 replacement (see entry below). fuel consumption and less noise/ Nox. In Nov 2010, GE PW1000 (Geared Turbofan) (D) and Snecma launched the LEAP-X (18-50K thrust), which Launched in July 2008, Pratt & Whitney’s PW1000G family Boeing 777X (C) represents a totally new turbofan engine that will be able to (formerly GTF) is the company’s solution for a next- To keep its offering attractive and to compete with the provide a longer life to the B737 and A320 family. It has no generation turbofan. The engine has conventional turbofan A350-1000XWB, Boeing seems set to upgrade the 777. Any common parts with the current CFM56-5/7 engine. architecture, but features an additional planetary gearbox new Boeing aircraft is likely to be comparatively accessible between the fan and compressor sections. for UK industry. There is however no programme launch and no declared timescale. Boeing appears to be waiting for more clarity of the A350-1000XWB timeline before fixing that for the 777X.
  • 7. 10 UK Aerospace International Strategy 2012 UK Aerospace International Strategy 2012 11 Engine compressors and turbines run mos
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