Applying Data Assimilation in Bioeconomics Management

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Applying Data Assimilation in Bioeconomics Management
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  Applying Data Assimilation in Bioeconomics Management  North East Arctic Cod Stock The Barents Sea Cod, Capelin, and Herring eVITA-EnKF meeting, January 2010 Sameh Gharib, sameh.gharib@nhh.no  eVITA-EnKF meeting, January 2010 The Study Area •    North East Arctic (Area  I   and  IIa ) •   Source of data is ICES Data sets. ICES: International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. http://www.ices.dk/    2/15 1/27/10 Sameh Gharib, sameh.gharib@nhh.no  eVITA-EnKF meeting, January 2010 Fishery Industry Fish stocks & Harvest: Cod, Capelin, & Herring 3/15 1/27/10 Sameh Gharib, sameh.gharib@nhh.no 1. Find optimal TACs from the management model according to the  present stock sizes. 2. Set optimal TACs into the simulation model. 3. Simulate next year stock sizes in accordance with the TACs. 4. Start again from point 1 with new stock sizes as starting point.  eVITA-EnKF meeting, January 2010 Activities: Working in PARALLEL in: •   Three bioeconomic models:  –    1D model (Cod stock and harvest)  –    2D model (Cod and Capelin prey-predator model)  –    3D model (Cod Capelin and Herring) •   Two techniques:  –    VAM  –    EnKF, EnKS. •   Working Papers:  –    Paper 1: A comparison between the VAM and EnKF in 1D bioeconomic models.  –    Paper 2: Applying VAM and EnKF of Data assimilation for 2D biomass models.  –    Paper 3: EnKS for 3D multispecies model. 4/15 1/27/10 Sameh Gharib, sameh.gharib@nhh.no  eVITA-EnKF meeting, January 2010 The population dynamics are described by:   …….. (1)   where  x  is the biomass and  y  is the harvest. The logistic growth function  f   takes the form:   ..…… (2)   where r   is the intrinsic growth rate and K is the carrying capacity. Let  p  be the unit price of fish and c  be a proportionality constant, then the average net revenue is given by:   ……… (3) the relationship between the rate of change of fish biomass, y, and the function is given by: ……….(4) where is an adjustment parameter, and therefore, we get the system of equations: ……… (5) where the term is the annual total profit (total revenues - total costs). 1-D Bioeconomic Model (Cod) 5/15 1/27/10 Sameh Gharib, sameh.gharib@nhh.no
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