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WHAT HAPPENED TO THE SOVIET SUPERPOWER’S NUCLEAR ARSENAL? Graham Allison CLUES FOR THE NUCLEAR SECURITY SUMMIT March 2012 Discussion Paper #2012 – 04 Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Fax: (617) 495-8963 Email: bcsia_ksg@harvard.edu Website: http://belfercenter.org Copyright 2012 President and Fellows of Harvard College The author of this report invites use of this information for educ
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  March 2012  WHAT HAPPENED TO THE SOVIETSUPERPOWER’S NUCLEAR ARSENAL? CLUES FOR THE NUCLEAR SECURITY SUMMIT Graham Allison    Discussion Paper #2012  –  04Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of GovernmentHarvard University79 JFK StreetCambridge, MA 02138Fax: (617) 495-8963Email: bcsia_ksg@harvard.eduWebsite: http://belfercenter.org  Copyright 2012 President and Fellows of Harvard CollegeThe author of this report invites use of this information for educational purposes,requiring only that the reproduced material clearly cite the full source: Allison, Graham. “What Happened to the Soviet Superpower’s Nuclear Arsenal? Clues for the NuclearSecurity Summit. ” Discussion Paper 2012 -04, Belfer Center for Science and InternationalAffairs, Harvard Kennedy School, March 2012.Statements and views expressed in this discussion paper are solely those of the author anddo not imply endorsement by Harvard University, the Harvard Kennedy School, or theBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs.Cover Image: In this 1998 photo taken in Pervomaisk, Ukraine, a senior U.S. defenseofficial, second left, looks into a Soviet SS-24 ballistic missile silo which was to beeliminated in accordance with the Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of StrategicOffensive Arms. Photo by Associated Press.Layout by Courtney Anderson    Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Simon Saradzhyan, Research Fellow at the Belfer Centerfor Science and International Affairs; Melanie Getreuer, former Research Assistant at theBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs; and Ben Rhode, Research Associateat the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs for their help in preparing thispaper.    TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction. .................................................................................................................................. 1The Setting ..................................................................................................................................... 4Step-By-Step: What Happened To Soviet Nukes?...................................................................... 6 Strategic Nuclear Arsenal ........................................................................................................... 6Tactical Nuclear Arsenals ........................................................................................................ 12Nuclear Theft ........................................................................................................................... 13   Cooperative Threat Reduction .................................................................................................. 15   Lessons Learned .......................................................................................................................... 20   Next Step: Global Alliance Against Nuclear Terrorism .......................................................... 23 Appendix: Graham Allison’s Memo to Colin Powell. .............................................................. 28  
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